Demography, Social Security, Financial-Insurance Risk: Present and Future Impacts of the Economic Crisis: The Case of Greece

Vassilios Betsis

A state social security system is a subset of the functioning of the economy as a whole.The difficulty and complexity of studying a social security system lies in the fact of the time lag between the period of the payment of insurance contributions which constitutes the working life of an insured person and the receipt of retirement benefits which constitute the retirement period. For this reason, the study of the present economic condition of a social security system is not enough, but it is essential the study of future viability in order to ensure both payment and adequacy of pension benefits for current and future retirees. The purpose of this thesis is to highlight and examine the association of demography with the social security system. In particular, the effects of the economic crisis-recession on the demographic components of the Greek population are investigated and then investigated: (a) initially whether these effects (changes in demographic components) had an impact on the social security system and (b) if so, which are the magnitude of the impact of changes in demographic components on absolute values (monetary units) and relative values (indexes) was measured.

The methodology used in this dissertation to measure the present and future impacts of the financial crisis is that of economic projections. That is, a model of economic projections was developed that measured, in economic terms, the effects of the economic crisis on demographic components, which in turn affect the economic sustainability and social efficiency of the social security system. 

The main findings of this thesis are that the austerity policies of the Memorandums implemented during the period fo the economic crisis (2009-2018) in Greece did not improve the financial sustainability of the social security system. In contrast, the final result was the deterioration of the social security and the social effectiveness of the social security system.

Through this thesis, further research can be initiated using the projected economic model of the present study but supplemented by a projected demographic model thereby explaining specific demographic policies that offset the future effects of the economic crisis and recession on the social security system which were evaluated in this thesis.

Dissertation Committee Members
Dissertation Date
November 2020